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Russia is losing on the electronic battlefield

Among Russia’s most costly mistakes when it invaded Ukraine was the expectation that it would dominate the electronic warfare part of the battle. Instead, Russia has stumbled and lost its way in the little-known realm of intercepting and jamming communications, an increasingly essential element of military success.

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И тея са тръгнали да се правят на световна сила...

The collapse of the Russian military machine

Western intelligence on Russian military capabilities is being tested again as Russia unleashes its full military power to seek a victory over Ukraine in the eastern Donbas region. And this time, too, the likely outcome is that the Ukrainian defenders will surprise analysts by inflicting sufficient casualties to force a Russian retreat. 

When the Kremlin made its original move on February 24, the outcome was commonly expected to be a swift and devastating Russian victory. When the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany asked for help, he was politely informed that there was no point in sending weapons since the war would be over in 48 hours.

Reality check

One month into the war, the tables had been turned. The Ukrainian side had inflicted massive losses on the aggressor and taken the initiative in successful counteroffensives. Badly battered, Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine. The implication is that, while Ukraine’s ability to resist had been underestimated, the capability of the Russian war machine had been even more seriously overestimated.

Indiscriminate terror bombing of civilians has become Russia’s only real option for continuing the aggression.

And now, based on early developments on the ground, it seems increasingly likely that the Russian offensive in Donbas will meet the same fate as the failed ambition to take Kyiv. If this turns out to be the case, Ukraine will win the war, albeit at a horrible price. Given that the Russian side will not be allowed to yield until it has little to fight with, one can predict that Russia will emerge out of the war with a badly damaged military force. Such a scenario would have profound long-term implications.

The bravery and military prowess of the Ukrainian side have already made their mark in history. What remains to be explained is how Russia’s war effort could fail so abysmally in achieving its original objectives, so much so that indiscriminate terror bombing of civilians has become Moscow’s only real option for continuing the aggression.

What went wrong?

A tentative answer might be that the war was planned and launched by the Kremlin and its security services rather than the professional military. Adding that the Kremlin’s advisors likely had been fearful of informing their masters about the sorry state of the military, it is tempting to conclude that those who launched the war had fallen victim to their own propaganda, a malaise typical to authoritarian political systems.

While there is probably much truth to such an analysis, it still fails to capture the main lessons of the Kremlin’s failure: the breakdown of essential logistics, the failure of command and control, the decrepit condition of much of the hardware and the poor accuracy of precision-guided munitions. This disastrous battlefield test indicates the presence of substantial systemic failures.

At the time of the invasion, Russia had amassed close to 200,000 men and an extensive collection of armor and heavy equipment along the borders of Ukraine. Its arsenal of long-distance missiles looked sure to cripple the Ukrainian air force and air defenses. And the security services were believed to have recruited enough Ukrainian traitors to put in place a pro-Russian government.

Perhaps the most symbolic manifestation of the ensuing debacle was an early loss of a column of troops from the Kremlin’s National Guard, the Rosgvardiya, that drove toward Kyiv in lightly protected vehicles. The unit, equipped with riot control gear – helmets, shields, batons – had been tasked with patrolling the streets of captured Kyiv. These men proved easy targets for the Ukrainian defenders.

Any attempt to assess whether Russia can score more success in Donbas and whether it will be able to rebuild its badly battered military after the war must begin with addressing two critical issues: what made it descend into such a sorry state, and how Russian spin could convince all sides that Russia had emerged as a serious threat to NATO.

Missed history lessons

The answer is twofold. The Russian attempt at a military reform failed to shape a modern force structure and then explain how endemic, massive corruption had hampered the attempted modernization of military hardware. But first and foremost, the track record of the Putin regime had offered ample insights that should have given pause to beliefs in the emergence of a modern Russian war machine.

The second Chechen war, fought from 1999 to 2009 under Vladimir Putin’s rule, may be viewed as a precursor to the second phase of the Ukraine war.

A pattern for what has played out in Ukraine was provided by the two wars that Russia fought to suppress a radical Islamist insurgency in Chechnya. The first Chechen war, fought under President Boris Yeltsin from 1994 to 1996, may be viewed as a precursor to the first phase of the Ukrainian invasion. Based on an ill-founded belief in a lightning strike, it was shattered by Chechens’ fierce resistance, resulting in heavy losses and Russian withdrawal.

The second Chechen war, fought from 1999 to 2009 under Vladimir Putin’s rule, may, in turn, be viewed as a precursor to the second phase of the Ukraine war. Having learned that urban warfare would result in massive casualties, Russia resorted to hefty artillery bombardment that transformed the capital city Grozny into rubble.

While the second war in Chechnya was still being prosecuted, Russia went to fight against Georgia in 2008. That war, too, was marked by logistical chaos and a failure to conduct combined arms operations. The latter resulted in friendly fire incidents, including shootdowns of own aircraft. The invasion succeeded in the end only due to overwhelming numbers.

Failed reforms

The Kremlin’s response to these debacles was the military reform launched in 2009 under Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. The main thrust was to scrap the old force structure of five million men mobilized into more than two hundred WWII-style divisions.

The reconstituted ground forces were supposed to consist of 89 “readiness brigades” – all of them fully staffed, equipped for autonomous action and ready to deploy “within one hour.” To ensure that the new force structure would be leaner but meaner, the reformers devised a program for military modernization, priced at a staggering $600 billion.

Over the decade that followed, Russia conducted well-rehearsed large-scale military drills, staging the highest-profile shows in the Western military district. These games, held every four years, involved Russian forces in Belarus, and the 2009 exercise notably showcased a simulated nuclear strike against Warsaw. In between the war games, Russia also conducted “snap inspections” to test the readiness for rapid deployment.

Missed signals

Astute Russian military observers warned that these spectacular wargames contained characteristic elements of the classic Russian Potemkin facade. But military-industrial interests in the West eagerly soaked up the Russian projections, clamoring for increased funding.

Once the new-style readiness brigades had failed abysmally, the military command resorted to its tried tactics of using missiles and artillery to transform civilian housing into rubble.

Early notice of what was coming to Ukraine was served when Russia entered the war in Syria. Seeking to prop up the faltering regime of President Bashar al-Assad, it orchestrated a campaign of indiscriminate bombing. The outcome was like in Grozny, with the rebel stronghold Aleppo reduced to rubble. Ominously for Ukraine, poison gas was used to force defenders out of basement positions so that they could be killed in the open.

Beyond its ruthlessness, the Russian side did not impress. Having been dispatched to support the air campaign, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov demonstrated its uselessness, as warplanes taking off from its deck could not return and had to land in Syria. Also, the much-feared Wagner mercenary group took massive casualties when engaged by American forces.

The combination of inefficiency and murderous brutality that marked the campaigns in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria also characterizes the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military command failed to ensure air superiority, came up short on command and control and suffered considerable attrition of senior officers, including generals and admirals killed in Ukrainian strikes.

Once the new-style readiness brigades had failed abysmally, the military command resorted to its tried tactics of encircling cities and using missiles and artillery to transform civilian housing into rubble.

Systemic failures

The hardware’s poor performance, including the misses of supposedly precision-guided munitions, may be linked to endemic corruption in Russia’s military sector. Official auditors have suggested that a fifth of the Russian defense budget is defrauded every year; this may still be an underestimation.

An important reason why advancing Russian forces have been unable to drive off-road in Ukraine was that contractors given funds to purchase top-of-the-line Western tires opted to acquire poor quality Chinese products, pocketing the difference. Similar evidence pertains to vehicle batteries with extremely short service lives, leaving equipment without power. Evidence from captured Russian supplies, in turn, has shown food rations that expired in 2007. Again, some contractors had made a bundle, leaving Russian tank crews to consume inedible food or starve, or engage in looting.

It is symptomatic that when the Russian military command sought to compensate for battlefield losses by bringing tanks out of storage, it discovered that in many cases vital hi-tech equipment like gyros and target finders had been stripped and gone missing. Entire engine blocks had been removed; for example, in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, 40 percent of the equipment in long-term storage proved inoperable. Tellingly, agents of the Federal Security Service (FSB) sent to Ukraine to recruit pro-Russian elements for a new government reportedly had pocketed the funds provided and submitted false reports, causing U.S. intelligence to warn about success in such endeavors. The operation of the dreaded Russian agency thus proved to be another house of cards.

Scenarios

Looking forward, the prospects for Russia rebuilding its military capabilities are dismal. The software constraint could be overcome; it might also be possible to restore professional leadership and, over time, rebuild morale among troops that have been through hell. However, what may prove decisive, rebuilding military hardware promises to be a steep uphill battle.

Conceivably, some European nations will seek to force Ukraine into a compromise that will end the war on Russian terms, presumably to open the door to lifting sanctions and resuming business as usual. However, as the scope of war crimes committed against Ukrainian civilians has become public knowledge, moral condemnation of Russia is so profound that democratic governments will find it nigh impossible to do away with the sanctions.

This situation has four sets of implications. The first concerns financing. As Russian exports of oil and gas to Europe are being phased out, pipelines for gas to Europe will soon become obsolete. Finding other markets will be possible, but at discounted prices and higher transport cost. Following the debacle in Ukraine, the prospects for Russian arms exports will also plummet, with China likely to take over much of the Russian market shares in the developing world.

The second implication is that vital subcontractors of the defense sector have been lost for a long time. Moscow could not use Ukraine’s military enterprises after 2014, and now the German ones will have to break all ties. It is symptomatic that Russia’s largest maker of tanks – Uralvagonzavod – has ceased operations due to a lack of components. The hopes that China will step in may not materialize, given that Beijing is concerned about Western sanctions against its own economy.

The third implication is that brain drain may accelerate. As educated young Russians move out of the country and foreign firms fold their tents there, the quality of human capital needed for hi-tech military development could deteriorate dramatically.

The fourth and most important consequence is that, as the war drags on and Russia weakens economically and militarily, and the Kremlin is forced to withdraw whatever troops can be “harvested” from other deployments, other actors are likely to be emboldened. 

Azerbaijan has already resumed its offensive in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Georgia may be eying the recapture of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Moldova could decide to tackle the breakaway Transnistria. Turkey may take a more resolute stance against Russia in both Syria and Libya. And after the humiliation in Ukraine of the Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, Russia might even be drawn into a third Chechen war.

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Преди 1 минута, новорегистриран2 said:

И тея са тръгнали да се правят на световна сила...

The collapse of the Russian military machine

Western intelligence on Russian military capabilities is being tested again as Russia unleashes its full military power to seek a victory over Ukraine in the eastern Donbas region. And this time, too, the likely outcome is that the Ukrainian defenders will surprise analysts by inflicting sufficient casualties to force a Russian retreat. 

When the Kremlin made its original move on February 24, the outcome was commonly expected to be a swift and devastating Russian victory. When the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany asked for help, he was politely informed that there was no point in sending weapons since the war would be over in 48 hours.

Reality check

One month into the war, the tables had been turned. The Ukrainian side had inflicted massive losses on the aggressor and taken the initiative in successful counteroffensives. Badly battered, Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine. The implication is that, while Ukraine’s ability to resist had been underestimated, the capability of the Russian war machine had been even more seriously overestimated.

Indiscriminate terror bombing of civilians has become Russia’s only real option for continuing the aggression.

And now, based on early developments on the ground, it seems increasingly likely that the Russian offensive in Donbas will meet the same fate as the failed ambition to take Kyiv. If this turns out to be the case, Ukraine will win the war, albeit at a horrible price. Given that the Russian side will not be allowed to yield until it has little to fight with, one can predict that Russia will emerge out of the war with a badly damaged military force. Such a scenario would have profound long-term implications.

The bravery and military prowess of the Ukrainian side have already made their mark in history. What remains to be explained is how Russia’s war effort could fail so abysmally in achieving its original objectives, so much so that indiscriminate terror bombing of civilians has become Moscow’s only real option for continuing the aggression.

What went wrong?

A tentative answer might be that the war was planned and launched by the Kremlin and its security services rather than the professional military. Adding that the Kremlin’s advisors likely had been fearful of informing their masters about the sorry state of the military, it is tempting to conclude that those who launched the war had fallen victim to their own propaganda, a malaise typical to authoritarian political systems.

While there is probably much truth to such an analysis, it still fails to capture the main lessons of the Kremlin’s failure: the breakdown of essential logistics, the failure of command and control, the decrepit condition of much of the hardware and the poor accuracy of precision-guided munitions. This disastrous battlefield test indicates the presence of substantial systemic failures.

At the time of the invasion, Russia had amassed close to 200,000 men and an extensive collection of armor and heavy equipment along the borders of Ukraine. Its arsenal of long-distance missiles looked sure to cripple the Ukrainian air force and air defenses. And the security services were believed to have recruited enough Ukrainian traitors to put in place a pro-Russian government.

Perhaps the most symbolic manifestation of the ensuing debacle was an early loss of a column of troops from the Kremlin’s National Guard, the Rosgvardiya, that drove toward Kyiv in lightly protected vehicles. The unit, equipped with riot control gear – helmets, shields, batons – had been tasked with patrolling the streets of captured Kyiv. These men proved easy targets for the Ukrainian defenders.

Any attempt to assess whether Russia can score more success in Donbas and whether it will be able to rebuild its badly battered military after the war must begin with addressing two critical issues: what made it descend into such a sorry state, and how Russian spin could convince all sides that Russia had emerged as a serious threat to NATO.

Missed history lessons

The answer is twofold. The Russian attempt at a military reform failed to shape a modern force structure and then explain how endemic, massive corruption had hampered the attempted modernization of military hardware. But first and foremost, the track record of the Putin regime had offered ample insights that should have given pause to beliefs in the emergence of a modern Russian war machine.

The second Chechen war, fought from 1999 to 2009 under Vladimir Putin’s rule, may be viewed as a precursor to the second phase of the Ukraine war.

A pattern for what has played out in Ukraine was provided by the two wars that Russia fought to suppress a radical Islamist insurgency in Chechnya. The first Chechen war, fought under President Boris Yeltsin from 1994 to 1996, may be viewed as a precursor to the first phase of the Ukrainian invasion. Based on an ill-founded belief in a lightning strike, it was shattered by Chechens’ fierce resistance, resulting in heavy losses and Russian withdrawal.

The second Chechen war, fought from 1999 to 2009 under Vladimir Putin’s rule, may, in turn, be viewed as a precursor to the second phase of the Ukraine war. Having learned that urban warfare would result in massive casualties, Russia resorted to hefty artillery bombardment that transformed the capital city Grozny into rubble.

While the second war in Chechnya was still being prosecuted, Russia went to fight against Georgia in 2008. That war, too, was marked by logistical chaos and a failure to conduct combined arms operations. The latter resulted in friendly fire incidents, including shootdowns of own aircraft. The invasion succeeded in the end only due to overwhelming numbers.

Failed reforms

The Kremlin’s response to these debacles was the military reform launched in 2009 under Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. The main thrust was to scrap the old force structure of five million men mobilized into more than two hundred WWII-style divisions.

The reconstituted ground forces were supposed to consist of 89 “readiness brigades” – all of them fully staffed, equipped for autonomous action and ready to deploy “within one hour.” To ensure that the new force structure would be leaner but meaner, the reformers devised a program for military modernization, priced at a staggering $600 billion.

Over the decade that followed, Russia conducted well-rehearsed large-scale military drills, staging the highest-profile shows in the Western military district. These games, held every four years, involved Russian forces in Belarus, and the 2009 exercise notably showcased a simulated nuclear strike against Warsaw. In between the war games, Russia also conducted “snap inspections” to test the readiness for rapid deployment.

Missed signals

Astute Russian military observers warned that these spectacular wargames contained characteristic elements of the classic Russian Potemkin facade. But military-industrial interests in the West eagerly soaked up the Russian projections, clamoring for increased funding.

Once the new-style readiness brigades had failed abysmally, the military command resorted to its tried tactics of using missiles and artillery to transform civilian housing into rubble.

Early notice of what was coming to Ukraine was served when Russia entered the war in Syria. Seeking to prop up the faltering regime of President Bashar al-Assad, it orchestrated a campaign of indiscriminate bombing. The outcome was like in Grozny, with the rebel stronghold Aleppo reduced to rubble. Ominously for Ukraine, poison gas was used to force defenders out of basement positions so that they could be killed in the open.

Beyond its ruthlessness, the Russian side did not impress. Having been dispatched to support the air campaign, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov demonstrated its uselessness, as warplanes taking off from its deck could not return and had to land in Syria. Also, the much-feared Wagner mercenary group took massive casualties when engaged by American forces.

The combination of inefficiency and murderous brutality that marked the campaigns in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria also characterizes the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military command failed to ensure air superiority, came up short on command and control and suffered considerable attrition of senior officers, including generals and admirals killed in Ukrainian strikes.

Once the new-style readiness brigades had failed abysmally, the military command resorted to its tried tactics of encircling cities and using missiles and artillery to transform civilian housing into rubble.

Systemic failures

The hardware’s poor performance, including the misses of supposedly precision-guided munitions, may be linked to endemic corruption in Russia’s military sector. Official auditors have suggested that a fifth of the Russian defense budget is defrauded every year; this may still be an underestimation.

An important reason why advancing Russian forces have been unable to drive off-road in Ukraine was that contractors given funds to purchase top-of-the-line Western tires opted to acquire poor quality Chinese products, pocketing the difference. Similar evidence pertains to vehicle batteries with extremely short service lives, leaving equipment without power. Evidence from captured Russian supplies, in turn, has shown food rations that expired in 2007. Again, some contractors had made a bundle, leaving Russian tank crews to consume inedible food or starve, or engage in looting.

It is symptomatic that when the Russian military command sought to compensate for battlefield losses by bringing tanks out of storage, it discovered that in many cases vital hi-tech equipment like gyros and target finders had been stripped and gone missing. Entire engine blocks had been removed; for example, in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, 40 percent of the equipment in long-term storage proved inoperable. Tellingly, agents of the Federal Security Service (FSB) sent to Ukraine to recruit pro-Russian elements for a new government reportedly had pocketed the funds provided and submitted false reports, causing U.S. intelligence to warn about success in such endeavors. The operation of the dreaded Russian agency thus proved to be another house of cards.

Scenarios

Looking forward, the prospects for Russia rebuilding its military capabilities are dismal. The software constraint could be overcome; it might also be possible to restore professional leadership and, over time, rebuild morale among troops that have been through hell. However, what may prove decisive, rebuilding military hardware promises to be a steep uphill battle.

Conceivably, some European nations will seek to force Ukraine into a compromise that will end the war on Russian terms, presumably to open the door to lifting sanctions and resuming business as usual. However, as the scope of war crimes committed against Ukrainian civilians has become public knowledge, moral condemnation of Russia is so profound that democratic governments will find it nigh impossible to do away with the sanctions.

This situation has four sets of implications. The first concerns financing. As Russian exports of oil and gas to Europe are being phased out, pipelines for gas to Europe will soon become obsolete. Finding other markets will be possible, but at discounted prices and higher transport cost. Following the debacle in Ukraine, the prospects for Russian arms exports will also plummet, with China likely to take over much of the Russian market shares in the developing world.

The second implication is that vital subcontractors of the defense sector have been lost for a long time. Moscow could not use Ukraine’s military enterprises after 2014, and now the German ones will have to break all ties. It is symptomatic that Russia’s largest maker of tanks – Uralvagonzavod – has ceased operations due to a lack of components. The hopes that China will step in may not materialize, given that Beijing is concerned about Western sanctions against its own economy.

The third implication is that brain drain may accelerate. As educated young Russians move out of the country and foreign firms fold their tents there, the quality of human capital needed for hi-tech military development could deteriorate dramatically.

The fourth and most important consequence is that, as the war drags on and Russia weakens economically and militarily, and the Kremlin is forced to withdraw whatever troops can be “harvested” from other deployments, other actors are likely to be emboldened. 

Azerbaijan has already resumed its offensive in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Georgia may be eying the recapture of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Moldova could decide to tackle the breakaway Transnistria. Turkey may take a more resolute stance against Russia in both Syria and Libya. And after the humiliation in Ukraine of the Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, Russia might even be drawn into a third Chechen war.

Плиииииииз. На българскир не ми се чете толкова рано....Занза ако може. За какво сдтава дума.

 

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Преди 1 минута, Skubi said:

Плиииииииз. На българскир не ми се чете толкова рано....Занза ако може. За какво сдтава дума.

 

Някой е откраднал парите и сега става видно какви са последствията от властващата клептокрация.

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Преди 15 часа, Konche said:

Тоест вървят към сценария за "малкото" обкръжение. Беше логично, "голямото" обкръжение минаваше по линията, Бравинково-Велика Новоселка, която е 170км.

Ямпол-Попасна е 70км.

 

Жуков със сигурност би пробвал голямото обкръжение.

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Според украинците в момента тече евакуация на руски офицери и семействата им от Приднестровието. Май в това направление глесят да е деветомайския удар.

22436235_0.jpg

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Зеленский добавил, что по окончании войны Москве придется выплачивать репарации и участвовать в восстановлении Украины. Ущерб украинской экономике и инфраструктуре он оценил примерно в $600 млрд.

Ранее президент Украины говорил, что страна сможет вернуть оккупированные Россией территории, если у нее будет много оружия. «Это будет не вопрос 8 лет, как с 2014-го, это будет сразу. Это вопрос оружия», — сказал он.

По его мнению, в будущем перед трибуналом предстанут Путин и все российские военные, которые отдавали «позорные приказы по уничтожению людей, детей».

«Это длится годами. Мы подождем. А если такие как я не дождутся, то наши дети точно дождутся», — заключил Зеленский.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2022/05/04/zelenskii-raskril-plani-ukraini-po-vozvrascheniyu-krima-a20100

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В войне против Украины Россия начала использовать противокорабельные крылатые ракеты "Оникс" для атак по наземным целям. Это может свидетельствовать о нехватке у страны-агрессора других типов высокоточных боеприпасов большой дальности.

Об этом сообщает РБК-Украина со ссылкой на старого научного сотрудника Центра военно-морского анализа США Майкла Кофмана в Twittter.

"Я все чаще интерпретирую это как признак того, что у них мало других типов ракет большой дальности. Это дорогая система для использования во второстепенной роли", - заявил Кофман.

"На данный момент частично один из районов Львовской области находится без света, ведется работа по восстановлению, есть задержка движения поездов. Удар был по железнодорожным подстанциям, нанесен существенный ущерб", - отметил руководитель области.

Он добавил, что в результате вражеского обстрела пострадали два человека. Они были госпитализированы с легкими повреждениями.

Напомним, вечером 3 мая российские военные нанесли несколько ракетных ударов по Львовской области.

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/raketnyy-obstrel-lvovskoy-oblasti-glava-ova-1651648614.html

Сегодня, 4 мая, продолжится эвакуация мирного населения из Мариуполя в Запорожье. Маршрут будет проходить через Луначарское кольцо, Токмак и Васильевку.

Об этом сообщает РБК-Украина со ссылкой на главу Донецкой ОВА Павла Кириленко.

Эвакуация в Мариуполе началась в 8:00. Автобусы уже выехали из города

Отмечается, что эвакуация происходит при поддержке ООН и Международного комитета Красного Креста.

Напомним, из-за ракетного обстрела нескольких областейзадерживается движение поездов.

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/es-neobhodimo-nayti-formulu-neftyanogo-embargo-1651646892.html

 
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Преди 1 минута, scaner said:

 

Кремль отказывается от термина "денацификация": русские его не понимают – СМИ

Накратко:
Кремль сокращает в эфирах пропагандистов употребление термина «денацификация», которым объясняет аудитории Путина агрессию против Украины

Закрытые соцопросы свидетельствуют, что респонденты не смогли толком объяснить, что означает этот пропагандистский термин.

Более того, русским было сложно даже выговорить это слово
 

Какво стана с украинското ядрено оръжие?!

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Сводката по фронтовете според Игор Стрелков:

Сводка по фронтам:

С Белгородского и Брянского фронтов сведений об активных боевых действиях у меня не имеется.

В районе Харькова - бои к северо-востоку и юго-западу от города. Атаки украинских войск на этих направлениях остановлены без существенных (для ВСУ) результатов. Нашим войскам, впрочем, тоже "похвастаться" нечем. В целом, фронт остается на линии, достигнутой ВСУ в ходе незначительного продвижения недельной давности.

В районе южнее Изюма - за минувшие двое суток российским войскам существенно продвинуться и овладеть какими-либо населенными пунктами не удалось. О прорыве к трассе Барвенково-Славянск речи пока не идет.
Продолжались бои вокруг Красного Лимана (по всей видимости, рассматриваемого командованием ВС РФ в качестве "утешительного приза" за ожидаемую (мною) неудачу с охватом всей донецкой группировки противника). Лиман охвачен российскими войсками и частями ВС ЛДНР с востока и юго-востока, но сдавать его без боя теперь (когда угроза прорыва на Барвенково ослабла) ВСУ явно не собираются. Лесистая местность вокруг города и полностью распустившаяся листва на растительности - способствуют обороне ВСУ. Продвижение российских войск идет медленно. Обе стороны несут чувствительные потери.

В районе Северодонецка - без изменений: опять-же потому, что оставлять этот сильно укрепленный форпост без реальной угрозы тылам ВСУ не намерены, а взять его штурмом у ВС РФ И ЛНР не получается. Продолжаются бои в промзоне на южной окраине Рубежного. С обеих сторон - большие потери.

Попасная - без изменений. Ожесточенные уличные бои с очень медленным продвижением российских и союзных войск.

Район Донецка. Авдеевка и Марьинка - без изменений. Район Угледара - аналогично. С единственным отличием, что в сам город и ключевые населенные пункты вокруг него ВС ДНР пока не вошли.

В Запорожской области переброшенные туда части ВС ДНР потерпели неудачу при подготовке наступления в районе села Любимовка (Севернее Мелитополя по трассе на Запорожье, западнее Токмака). Продолжаются позиционные бои.

Приднестровье - сведений о дополнительном обострении обстановки не поступало. Угроза вторжения остается актуальной и будет таковой вплоть до прорыва к региону российских войск.

Наконец началось нанесение системных (нацеленных не на разовые "акты устрашения" ,а на реальное нарушение железнодорожной сети) ракетных ударов по коммуникациям т.н. "украины". При этом не могу не отметить, что ключевые объекты - мосты и мостовые акведуки - по-прежнему ударами обходят. Основной упор делается на разрушении электро-подстанций, питающих линии. Однако имею честь напомнить (если вдруг в Генштабе не знают), что в распоряжении Киева имеется не такой уж малый парк тепловозов (часть ж/д линий на западной украине и в советское время не была электрофицирована). И для них повреждение систем подачи электричества неприятно, но не критично.

В целом - ситуация на фронте продолжает развиваться согласно моему (недельной давности) прогнозу. Стратегически - "на-руку" командованию ВСУ, которое сумело предотвратить широко разрекламированный прорыв фронта на Донбассе почти на тех-же самых позициях, с которых попытка прорыва начиналась (пока, по-крайней мере).
ВСУ выиграли еще неделю для пополнения войск, перегруппировки и подготовки резервов. А также для планирования вероятных наступательных операций там, где их ожидает (Приднестровье, к примеру) и не ожидает российское командование, по-прежнему почему-то уверенное (не смотря на все "уроки" предыдущих двух месяцев), что противник будет воевать так, как удобно ГШ ВС РФ.

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Москва с высокой вероятностью попытается 9 мая повторить в Молдове «донбасский сценарий». Как может выглядеть его старт легко представить, если вспомнить кадры захвата отделения милиции в Славянске «восставшими шахтерами» в камуфляже, бронежилетах, касках и с автоматами. «Повстанцы» держали связь по рациям и кричали на иностранном языке «Отойдите за поребрик!». Уникальный случай, когда «повстанцы» были экипированы и действовали более слажено, чем национальная армия. Откровения агента спецслужб РФ диверсанта Гиркина (Стрелкова) вскоре раскрыли этот секрет «повстанцев» и «ополченцев», пишет блогер Сергей Климовский.

В Молдове группы таких «повстанцев» уже есть и ждут лишь команды из Кремля. Свой Гиркин у них тоже есть и не один. Часть из них заехала в Молдову под видом беженцев из анклава Приднестровья. Появлялась информация об инфильтрации боевиков «Вагнера» из Ливии в Молдовуокружными путями через Сербию и Румынию.

Ничего сверхъестественного, если вспомнить попытку переворота в Черногории в октябре 2016 г., который готовили спецслужбы РФ, как минимум не без ведома спецслужб Сербии. В Черногории вооруженная группа из 20 таких боевиков планировала в день выборов захватить здание парламента и объявить о победе пророссийских партий

Ввод в Молдову Приднестровского колониального корпуса армии россии облегчается тем, что он контролирует город Бендеры на правом берегу Днестра и форсировать реку не нужно. Оборонительных укреплений возле Бендер у молдавской армии нет, и она вряд ли готова к отражению вторжения с этой стороны. Зайти из Бендер армии рф в Кишинев будет еще легче, чем из Крыма в Херсонскую область. От Бендер до Кишинева по автотрассе всего 45 км. За час «бендеровцы» из Бендер вполне могут добираться до «бандеровцев» и «румынофашистов» в Кишиневе.

В политическом аспекте ситуация для реализации Кремлем очередной спецоперации, на этот раз в Молдове, тоже благоприятная. Там есть коммунисты Воронина и отколовшиеся от них социалисты Додона, помимо тех реалистов, которые ждут возврата российской империи под любым флагом, хотя под входящим в моду бело-голубым-белым. Всех остальных, кто не в этих когортах, Кремль с разной степенью интенсивности, в зависимости от ситуации, 30 лет называет «румынофашистами».

https://sprotyv.info/analitica/pochemu-speczoperacziya-kremlya-s-putchem-v-moldove-mozhet-stat-provalnoj/

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Главното до тази сутрин:


🔴 Президент Франции Эммануэль Макрон призвал Путина разрешить продолжение эвакуации гражданских с «Азовстали».

🔴 92-я бригада ВСУ освободила от путинских войск посёлок Молодовая в Харьковской области.

🔴 Вечером 3 мая серия ракетных ударов была нанесена по Львову, а также по Закарпатской и Кировоградской области

🔴 Защитники Украины, используя беспилотники «Байрактар», уничтожили командный пункт интервентов на острове Змеином. Сообщается, что все, кто находился там на момент удара, погибли.

🔴 Секретарь СНБОУ Алексей Данилов спрогнозировал, что война с Россией продлится ещё долго, и, во всяком случае, её горячая фаза в мае не закончится.

🔴 Бомбоубежища «Азовстали» могут выдержать прямой ядерный удар, — заявил гендиректор завода Энвер Цкитишвили.

🔴 В Мариуполе были замечены «главный рупор» Кремля Соловьев и глава пропутинской партии «Единая Россия» Андрей Турчак.

🔴 Президент США Байден назвал кризис в Украине поворотным пунктом истории, который случается раз в 6-8 поколений.

🔴 Финляндия начала переброску военной техники на границу с РФ.

🔴 Еврокомиссия призвала страны ЕС подготовиться к остановке поставок российского газа.

🔴 Россия должна выплатить Украине репарации. Об этом заявил президент Украины Владимир Зеленский, выступая в видеоформате на встрече исполнительных директоров, организованном газетой The Wall Street Journal.

🔴 В непризнанной «республике» Приднестровье готовят эвакуацию семей офицеров РФ.

🔴 Канцлер Германии Олаф Шольц на заседании Кабинета министров Германии заявил, что вторжение России в Украину нарушило порядок после Второй мировой войны и заставило Европу усилить свою оборонную стратегию. Нет гарантии того, что российский президент и правительство не будут в других случаях нарушать международное право.

 


🔴 Суд на Фиджи разрешил США забрать яхту олигарха Керимова.

🔴 В российском Белгороде ночь снова прошла неспокойно, жители города слышали одиночные взрывы.

🔴 Президент США Джо Байден назначил генерала Кристофера Каволи на должность командующего силами НАТО в Европе.

🔴 Лихтенштейн запретил россиянам и резидентам РФ регистрировать трасты на территории страны.

🔴 Защитники Украины уничтожили пункт управления ВС РФ на административной границе Николаевской и Херсонской областей.

🔴 Вечером 3 мая ракетные удары по Украине наносили бомбардировщики Ту-95 или Ту-160. Огонь они вели из Каспийского региона. Ориентировочно российские войска выпустили 18 ракет.

🔴 В результате вчерашнего ракетного удара по Запорожской области погибло 2 человека.

🔴 Шестой пакет санкций ЕС, который анонсировала Еврокомиссия, предусматривает отказ от закупок российской нефти в течение 6 месяцев и прекращение импорта нефтепродуктов из России до конца 2022 года.

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Преди 24 минути, scaner said:

Главното до тази сутрин:



🔴 92-я бригада ВСУ освободила от путинских войск посёлок Молодовая в Харьковской области.

Вече почвам да се питан дали това настъпление е наистина демонстративно?

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Преди 59 минути, новорегистриран2 said:

Какво стана с украинското ядрено оръжие?!

С ядреното не знам, но против биологичнто се бориха дълго време, и в крайна сметка изтровиха гълъбите и врабчетта в Белгородска и Курска област...

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0:00 ВСТУПЛЕНИЕ

0:41 ЭМБАРГО НА ЭНЕРГОРЕСУРСЫ

7:56 МИД РФ ПРОДОЛЖАЕТ ПОЗОРИТЬСЯ

10:43 СВОДКА С ФРОНТА

14:59 МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ: ЧТО УЖЕ ИЗВЕСТНО?

17:13 БОРИС ДЖОНСОН ВЫСТУПИЛ В РАДЕ

19:00 ЧТО ПОСМОТРЕТЬ

20:50 ТИНЬКОВ О СВОЁМ УХОДЕ ИЗ РОССИИ

22:37 ЗА ЧЕМ СЛЕДИМ СЕГОДНЯ

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Поствам го за пореден път, защото има истина в думите му!

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В Румынию введен батальон США Stryker и отряд F-35

💬«Эскалация напряженности и массированное усиление российского военного присутствия вблизи Украины и в Черноморском регионе влияют на международную безопасность и стабильность, особенно европейскую и региональную безопасность на Черном море, которая позволила бы нам укрепить устойчивость Румынии», — сообщил президент страны Клаус Иоганнис.

Striker — американский опытный переносной противотанковый ракетный комплекс;

F-35 - малозаметный многофункциональный истребитель-бомбардировщик пятого поколения, разработанный США.
 

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Разузнаването на САЩ: Русия планира скоро да анексира Донецк и Луганск

Със сигурност знаем, че началникът на Генщаба на руската армия Валери Герасимов е бил в Украйна, твърди Пентагонът
03 Май 2022
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 БГНЕС архив

Русия планира скоро да "анексира" двата източни региона на Украйна, засегнати от руската инвазия. След като не успя да свали правителството в Киев, Москва ще анексира ДНР и ЛНР, казва посланикът на САЩ в ОССЕ пред АФП, цитирана от БГНЕС.

„Последните данни на разузнаването сочат, че Русия ще се опита да анексира Донецката народна република и Луганската народна република към Русия“, каза Майкъл Карпентър, посланик на САЩ в Организацията за сигурност и сътрудничество в Европа. .

„В докладите се посочва, че Русия планира да организира референдуми в Донбас, а самото присъединяване да се случи към средата на май“, каза Карпентър пред репортери във Вашингтон.

 

Той допълни, че Москва обмисляла сходен план и за Херсон. Това е единственият важен украински град, върху който руснаците поеха напълно контрола от началото на инвазията в Украйна.

Карпентър каза, че това ще бъдат подобия на референдуми, изфабрикувани гласувания, които няма да бъдат възприети като легитимни, както и всеки опит за анексиране на други украински територии. "Ние трябва да действаме спешно", добави той.

Киев също твърди, че Русия иска да организира в Херсонска област, както и в съседната Запорожка област референдуми за независимост.

Междувременно бе обявено, че Валери Герасимов, началник на Генералния щаб на въоръжените сили на Руската федерация, е бил в Украйна през изминалата седмица. Това твърди CNN, позовавайки се на висш служител на Пентагона в САЩ. 

"Със сигурност знаем, че Герасимов е бил в Донбас няколко дни от миналата седмица. Не знаем дали все още е там", каза служителят. Служителят, обаче, отказва да съобщи откъде САЩ са толкова сигурни за местонахождението на руския генерал, или с какви разузнавателни данни разполага.  По-рано бе съобщено, че Герасимов е ранен в Украйна. САЩ, обаче, нямат данни за това. 

Разузнаването на Пентагона не е сигурно защо генералът е посетил фронтовата линия и дали това е знак за липсата на доверие на Кремъл в генерал Александър Дворников, който само преди седмици беше назначен за командир на всички руски операции в Украйна, твърди медията. 

Според САЩ посещението на Герасимов показва, че той е искал директно да види операциите във войната на Русия.

Русия е пренасочила интернет трафика от Херсон

Русия е пренасочила интернет трафика от окупирания украински регион Херсон през руската комуникационната инфраструктура. Това съобщи агенция Ройтерс, цитирана от БНР. Агенцията се позова на организацията "НетБлокс", която следи киберсигурността и прекъсванията в доставките на интернет услуги. 

Базираната в Лондон "НетБлокс" е регистрирала почти пълно спиране на интернета в Херсон в събота, което е засегнало редица украински доставчици. Връзката е била възстановена след няколко часа, но трафикът вече е преминавал през Русия, сочат данни на организацията.

Москва твърди, че е установила пълен контрол над Херсон, а действията, свързани с пренасочване на интернета, целят да затвърдят руската власт там.

https://www.segabg.com/hot/category-foreign-country/razuznavaneto-na-sasht-rusiya-planira-skoro-da-aneksira-doneck-i-lugansk

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Само една от многото истории за украинци, насилствено депортирани в Русия:
 

https://t.me/uniannet/52077

300 мариупольцев, депортированных в россиию, нашлись на краю мира под Владивостоком

Советник мэра Мариуполя Петр Андрющенко сообщил, что депортированных расселили в поселке Врангеля. Денег не выдают, так что возможности выйти на связь банально нет.

Отмечается, что вещами не обеспечивают, кормят трехкратно, о качестве речь не идет.
Документов у людей нет, проводится процедура оформления. Обещают через две недели закончить бюрократические процедуры по оформлению и провести дальнейшее переселение в другие города.

Относительно работы – исключительно из предложенного. Низкокалифицированный и низкооплачиваемый труд.

Фактически, украинцев из теплого приазовья вывезли за 9,6 тыс. километров в задницу мира, где самый теплый месяц август с температурой +21 для чего?

----------------
Это несколько часов езды от Владивостока.
Привезли как есть, из подвалов, из-под бомбежек. В зимней одежде, с пустыми руками. У них нет сезонной одежды и элементарных вещей для повседневного обихода.

Зачем везли так далеко? Местный российский губернатор рассматривает этих людей как рабочую силу и сообщает о планах завоза нескольких тысяч человек. При этом люди измучены и большинство имеет проблемы со здоровьем.
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